意昂3系列講座
2016年第29講總第435講
主題🦻🏼：氣候變化對墨西哥-美國移民的影響
The Role of Climate Change on Mexico-US Migration
主講人：Fernando Riosmena
科羅拉多大學博爾德分校人口與地理學副教授
主持人：蔣耒文
亞洲人口研究中心主任；美國國家大氣研究中心科學家
主辦單位：意昂3官网亞洲人口研究中心暨人口研究所
合辦單位⛲️：上海研究院城市社會治理研究中心
講座時間：2016年6月22日星期三, 10:00-11:30am
講座地點👨🦼➡️👨🏻🏫：意昂3官网延長校區北大樓308
講座簡介🦈🫕：
Climate change is expected to continue increasing average temperatures and rainfall variability, especially in semi-arid landscapes. Much of rural Mexico is heavily dependent on rainfall and indeed semi-arid, thus prone to drought, while also having a history of significant internal and international outmigration. Presenting a summary of results from several research projects, I reflect on how much Mexico-US migration is associated with drought while also considering rapid structural changes affecting the Mexican countryside over the past several decades. These results show that rainfall variability is a minor factor, but one which predicts international migration under specific conditions related to the intensity of environmental events, a household's/place's/region's history of migration, and land use/irrigation practices. I argue that including the confluence of climate and political and economic factors more explicitly can improve migration theories and related empirical work, and help better shape agrarian and social development policies (e.g., types of support in rural areas in the fact of future structural and climate change), and immigration policy (e.g., considering when climate does drive international movement).
氣候變化導致氣溫及降雨的不穩定🌃，尤其影響半幹旱地區的地型地貌🏍。墨西哥農村主要屬於半幹旱地區，生產和生活嚴重依賴降水，存在大量國內人口流動和國際人口遷出的歷史。本講座將總結多項相關研究的成果，分析過去幾十年墨西哥向美國的人口遷移與幹旱的關系，以及墨西哥鄉村快速結構變遷所發揮的作用🔃。研究結果顯示，降水量的變化對墨西哥-美國的人口遷移直接影響很小，更主要的是受到環境事件的強度🤤🧙🏼、區域-村落-家庭流動歷史、以及土地使用和灌溉條件的影響。只有明確考慮了氣候、政治、經濟因素的影響🛗，才能改進人口遷移理論和相關實證研究，並更好地製定農業和社會發展政策，為農村在未來結構和氣候變化的條件下提供支持，並在製定人口遷移政策方面考慮氣候變化因素的影響。
主講人簡介✍️：
Fernando Riosmena is Associate Professor in the Population Program and Geography Department at the University of Colorado at Boulder, where he is also faculty associate in the Center for Latin American Studies and holds a courtesy faculty appointment in Sociology. His research and scholarship look at the role of US policies and practices as well as social, economic, and environmental conditions in sending communities on the migration dynamics between Latin America and the United States. Riosmena has published this work in outlets such as International Migration Review, Global Environmental Change, and the Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Sciences.. He has also participated in advisory and consulting bodies for US and Mexican governments, including a group of the US Academy of Sciences studying the measurement and extent of undocumented migration.
