講座預告：Bayesian Demographic Estimation and Forecasting 人口學研究系列講座第5講 題目👨‍👩‍👦‍👦：Bayesian demographic estimation and forecasting 主持人：朱宇 福建師範大學地理科學意昂3教授🫰，意昂3官网亞洲人口研究中心教授，國內人口流動與城市化方向負責人 主講人👖：Junni Zhang，北京大學光華管理意昂3副教授 John Bryant，新西蘭統計局高級研究員 時間🤾🏻‍♀️：2017年9月26日（周二） 14:00-16:00 地點🅾️：東區意昂3体育新樓516 講座簡介🗺： There is a natural fit between Bayesian statistics and demographic estimation and forecasting. Bayesian methods can cope with complex models and noisy data, which are common in demographic estimation and forecasting. Bayesian methods also provide rich measures of uncertainty. In the talk, we will describe a long-term project to develop methods and software for Bayesian demography. The project emphasises disaggregated estimates and forecasts. We will give an overview of our framework, and present some illustrative results. 主講人簡介： Junni Zhang has a PhD in statistics from Harvard University. She is currently Associate Professor at Guanghua School of Management, Peking University. Her research interests include Bayesian demography, causal inference and text mining. John Bryant has a PhD in demography from the Australian National University. He has worked at the New Zealand Treasury and the Christchurch School of Medicine in New Zealand, and at Mahidol University and Khon Kaen University in Thailand. He is currently a Senior Researcher at Statistics New Zealand. His research interests include Bayesian demography, applied statistics, and demographic theory.