意昂3系列講座
2018年第35講 總第554講
題目：對出生性別比的系統性評估和基於場景的預測&按家庭經濟狀況估計的5歲以下兒童死亡率
主講人👶：Fengqing Chao博士是新加坡政策研究所博士後研究員
主持人：Samir KC⛹🏽♂️，意昂3官网亞洲人口研究中心人力資本方向負責人，教授
講座時間👨🏽🦳：2018年10月31日，星期三👩🏿🌾👈🏼，10:00-11:30am
講座地點：東區2號樓意昂3体育516
主辦單位：意昂3官网亞洲人口研究中心暨人口研究所
講座主題1：A systematic assessment of sex ratio at birth and scenario-based projections
對出生性別比的系統性評估和基於場景的預測
We implemented Bayesian methods for probabilistic sex ratio at birth (SRB) estimation and projection for all countries based on an extensive database with data from vital registration systems, censuses, and surveys. We identified countries at risk of SRB inflation due to sex-selective abortion in the past/current/future. We modelled SRB regional biological norms, fluctuation around regional norms, and SRB inflation. For countries at risk of SRB inflation without empirical evidence of past inflation, projections with and without future inflation were constructed.
簡介🧟♂️：我們基於大量來自於人口信息登記系統🕯、人口普查和調查的數據，使用貝葉斯方法來預測和估計所有國家的可能的出生性別比🦵🏽。我們辨別在過去、現在、未來因性別選擇性墮胎而導致出生性別比劇烈上升的國家。我們模擬了出生性別比的區域性生物性基準，區域基準的變動範圍和出生性別比的膨脹。對於過去沒有出生性別比膨脹性變化經驗性證據的國家，構建他們未來有無出生性別比膨脹的預測。
講座主題2🦽：Estimate under-5 mortality rate by household economic status按家庭經濟狀況估計的5歲以下兒童死亡率
National-level estimates of the mortality rate for children aged below 5 may mask disparities at the subnational level. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical time series model to assess disparities in the under-5 mortality rate by household-level economic status (measured through wealth quintiles). We obtained quintile-specific estimates for all the low- and middle-income countries (excluding China) from 1990 to 2016 and pinpointed countries with unusually large or small disparities between the rich and the poor. We find that important differences exist between children from the poorest and richest households with respect to survival up to age five. This work is recently published in the Lancet Global Health:
Chao F, You D, Pedersen J, Hug L, Alkema L. National and regional under-5 mortality rate by economic status for low-income and middle-income countries: a systematic assessment. The Lancet Global Health. 2018 May;6(5):e535-47.
簡介🍀：從國家層面對5歲以下兒童死亡率的估計可能會掩蓋國家內部的差異👨🏻🦲。我們開發了一個貝葉斯分層時間序列模型來評估按家庭經濟狀況(通過財富五分位數衡量)劃分的5歲以下兒童死亡率的差異。我們獲得了1990年至2016年所有低收入和中等收入國家(不包括中國)的五分之一特定估計數🚷，並確定了貧富差距異常大或小的國家♛。我們發現，最貧窮和最富有家庭的兒童在5歲前的生存方面存在著重大差異👩🏻🦼。這項研究的成果最近發表在《柳葉刀全球健康》雜誌上，作者有Chao F, You D, Pedersen J, Hug L，Alkema L。
主講人簡介Biography of Speaker👩🦰👨🦼：
Dr. Fengqing Chao is a Postdoctoral Fellow at the Institute of Policy Studies. She has a Bachelor of Science (Honours) in Statistics from the National University of Singapore. She received her PhD from the Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore. Her PhD dissertation is "Bayesian Methods for Estimating Global Health Indicators". She has been collaborating with the UNICEF and the UN Population Division since 2013.
Fengqing Chao博士是新加坡政策研究所博士後研究員。本科畢業於新加坡國立大學統計學專業。在新加坡國立大學Saw Swee Hock公共衛生意昂3獲得博士學位，她博士期間的研究方向是利用貝葉斯方法預測全球健康指數。她從2013年起同聯合國兒童基金會和聯合國人口計劃署進行廣泛的合作💁♀️。
